This time, the seasonal market trends were a bust. Nearly everyone simply did not pan out.
Nevertheless, this actually is nothing new. If you do a 25 year graphic representation on the major indices, you will notice that a few years basically don’t work. But what you will also see is that in most years, they typically do.
What does this mean for us going into 2010?
It means that 2009 was one of those odd years where seasonality did not work meaning that in 2010, seasonality will in all probability work again.
The first seasonal trend will be upon us in just a couple of weeks, so let’s do a quick review.
The stock market has comparatively consistent and dependable seasonal trends. You should understand the most well-known cyclic trends, given that this information can prevent you from being excessively bullish at a recurring peak or excessively bearish at a seasonal low.
In a nutshell, the common trends favor a decline in early January (maybe profit-taking selling), followed by a mid-January rally. By late March or early April the market often reaches a peak, followed by a shifting market in mid-April, perhaps related to the April 15 tax deadline. The early summer months are regularly characterized by a midsummer rally, culminating in a market top in late July or early August. September and October are typically down months in the stock market (witness the 1929 Crash and the 1987 October decline), with the lows occurring sometime in late October (a good buying opportunity?). The trend into the end of the year is typically bullish, with the first two weeks in December characterized by a strong market. The Christmas holidays are normally quiet, with jerky and thin markets. There are always exceptions to these legitimate trends, but the general pattern is remarkably reliable.
Print this article if you have to and stick it near your trading screen. I think that because 2009 was a unusual bust for the majority of the recurring trends discussed above, 2010 will be an on year. One of the main errors amateur traders make is that they get sniped by more advanced fighters who know the seasonality trends.
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